Market Update, October 2026
Reviewed by Anne Sostman | The Brokery | Arizona License SA718853000 | November 2026
October 2026
Market
Update.
October thinned the middle of the market and kept the top. Scottsdale closed fewer homes than a year earlier, and nearly all of the drop was below one million. Arcadia closed more homes, weighted toward its most expensive streets. Paradise Valley closed fewer. Here is what the October data shows. The analysis is Anne Sostman's, built from the ARMLS record for Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and Arcadia.
Anne Sostman
October 2026 ARMLS Data
Scottsdale, Arcadia & Paradise Valley
All Dwelling Types
Closed, Pending, Active and New
City, Town and ZIP Level, Not Metro Averages
Market Overview
Fewer Sales Below a Million.
More at the Top.
Per ARMLS data for October 2026 analyzed by Anne Sostman of The Brokery, Scottsdale closed 456 sales across all residential dwelling types, down 14.1% year over year, at a median of $964,500, up 9.0%, and an average of $1,359,367, up 10.0%. That is $619.9M in closed volume.* Paradise Valley closed 21, down 34.4%, at a median of $4,234,000, up 17.4%. Arcadia (85018) closed 57, up 32.6%, at a median of $1,642,800, up 108%.
The change is inside the price bands. Scottsdale closings under $1M fell from 301 to 233, down 22.6%. At $1M and above they held near last year, 223 against 230, and above $3M they rose from 34 to 39. With 223 of 456 closings at $1M or more, the median moved up because of the mix of homes that sold, not because the same home is worth that much more than it was in October 2025.
Contracts are the number to read carefully. Homes going under contract in October were down 39.9% in Scottsdale (336 against 559), down 36.5% in Arcadia and down 71.9% in Paradise Valley. The first count of a month's contracts runs low, because late entries keep posting for weeks. September shows how much: Scottsdale's September contracts were 357 in Anne Sostman's October 20 export and 414 in her November 9 export, and Arcadia's went from 38 to 50. October's count will rise. Whether it closes the gap with last October is the first thing to check in the November report.
Two Markets, Two Readings
Scottsdale vs. Paradise Valley.
| Scottsdale
The Middle Thinned.
The Top Held. Scottsdale closed 456 residential sales in October, down 14.1% year over year, at a median of $964,500, up 9.0%. Supply barely moved: new listings were 963, down 1.7%, and active listings 2,530, up 3.1%, for 4.54 months of supply against 4.72 a year ago. Below $1M, active listings rose to 1,315 from 1,222 while closings in that range fell, so homes there are waiting longer for a buyer. The homes that sold went faster: median days on market fell to 46 from 56, and sellers collected 96.8% of list price. Year to date: 5,571 closings, up 3.8%, at a median of $953,000, up 7.5%.
|
Paradise Valley
Fewer Sales.
Higher Prices. Paradise Valley closed 21 sales against 32 a year earlier, down 34.4%, at a median of $4,234,000, up 17.4%. Of those closings, 13 were above $3M, against 18 a year earlier. The average of $5,280,905, up 65.5%, moves on a handful of estates at this transaction count and should be read gently. New listings were down 10.3% and active listings up 2.1%, at 6.73 months of supply. The month is small; the year is the better read. Year to date Paradise Valley has closed 351 sales against 352 a year earlier, at a median of $3,971,000, up 10.7%: the same number of sales at higher prices.
|
Arcadia, 85018
The Median Doubled.
Values Did Not.
Arcadia's October median of $1,642,800 is more than double last October's $790,000. The cause is what sold. Arcadia closed 25 homes at $2M or more, against 8 a year earlier, 13 of them above $3M against 2. Under $500K, closings fell from 15 to 8. A month weighted that heavily to the top of the zip moves the midpoint far more than values moved.
The year to date is the number to hold on to: 536 closings, up 18.1%, at a median of $1,243,750, up 19.3%. October closings collected 95.9% of list price, with median days on market at 50 against 55 last October.
Supply is building. New listings rose to 104, up 8.3%, and active listings to 282, up 5.2%. Contracts were 33 against 52, a first count that will rise as late entries post.
What This Means
For Sellers and Buyers.
| If You Are Selling
Your strategy depends on your price band. At $1M and above, Scottsdale closings held near last year, 223 against 230, and closings above $3M rose; a prepared listing there meets current demand. Below $1M, Scottsdale closings were down 22.6% while active listings in that range rose to 1,315 from 1,222. That is more competition for each buyer, so the asking price has to be right on the first day. Homes priced from closed comparables are still collecting 97% of list. In Arcadia, the year to date median, up 19.3%, is the honest guide to value, not October's median.
|
If You Are Buying
Below $1M in Scottsdale, October gave buyers more to choose from, 1,315 active listings against 1,222 a year ago, with fewer closings competing for them. Homes that have been listed since summer are negotiable on price, repairs and concessions alike; ask what offers the seller has already turned down. In Paradise Valley, 241 active listings at 6.73 months of supply gives a buyer time to compare. Above $3M in Scottsdale, closings rose from 34 to 39, so the estate you have been watching has other buyers watching it too.
|
Looking Ahead
What to Watch
in November.
First, the October recount. Scottsdale's first count of October contracts is 336 against 559 last October. If the recount closes most of that gap, demand held; if it does not, the slowdown below $1M is reaching contracts.
Second, the top of the market. Scottsdale closings above $3M were up 14.7% in October. Another month of growth would mean the season's luxury buyers arrived early.
Third, Arcadia's mix. October's 25 closings at $2M or more pulled the median to $1.64M. When the mix returns to normal, expect the monthly median to fall back toward the year to date figure of $1.24M. That will not be a drop in values.
Common Questions
Questions Sellers Ask Most.
Your Position
Ready to Talk About Your Position?
A market median tells you what happened across hundreds of homes. It does not tell you what yours is worth, or which side of October's split your street is on. Send me the address and I will give you a straight read, at no cost and with no obligation to list with me.
Keep Reading
Other Market Updates.
Last MonthSeptember 2026 Market ReportClosings, prices and days on market across the zip codes covering Scottsdale, Arcadia and Paradise Valley. | The Big PictureMarket PerspectiveHow to read headlines, rates, and market cycles like an owner, not a spectator: the evergreen framework behind every monthly report. | Your HomeWhat’s Your Home Worth?Turn market data into a number for your specific property: a real valuation from inside these neighborhoods, not an algorithm’s guess. |
*Closed volume is the ARMLS sold sale volume for the month. Paradise Valley’s average sale price is sensitive to composition given its low monthly transaction count. Contract (pending) counts for the latest month are the first count and rise as late entries post. All figures are ARMLS residential data for October 2026, all dwelling types, compared with October 2025, from Market Summary exports downloaded November 9, 2026. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data: ARMLS. Analysis: Anne Sostman, The Brokery, Arizona license SA718853000.