The Scottsdale Relocation Index is a quarterly publication · Q2 2026 Issue
Published October 2026
By Anne Sostman | The Brokery
The Scottsdale Relocation Index
Q2 2026.
The Q2 2026 issue of The Scottsdale Relocation Index, by Anne Sostman of The Brokery, is the issue for April 1 to June 30, 2026. It reports the migration and population figures the IRS and the U.S. Census Bureau had published by the end of that quarter, for Arizona, Maricopa County, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Phoenix. Every figure carries its source and its period, and none of those periods is April to June 2026.
Anne Sostman
IRS Migration Data
U.S. Census Bureau
Tax Foundation
Q2 2026 Issue
Summary
Q2 2026 in Three Findings,
Then the Detail.
One. The IRS migration files for returns filed in 2022 and 2023, which cover tax years 2021 and 2022, show 121,675 returns moving to Arizona from other states and 104,359 moving out. That is a net gain of 17,316 returns and 27,127 individuals, sixth among the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Two. In the same files, Maricopa County shows a net gain of 9,353 returns from other states. The Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 estimates put the county’s net domestic migration at 941 people for July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025, and Arizona’s at 31,107.
Three. The Census Bureau estimates Scottsdale’s population at 243,006 and Paradise Valley’s at 12,251 on July 1, 2025, down 1,680 and 250 from a year earlier. Maricopa County added 41,636 housing units over the same year.
Section One: IRS Migration Data
Arizona,
State by State.
The IRS builds its migration data by matching individual income tax returns across two filing years and comparing the addresses on them. The 2022 to 2023 files match returns filed in 2022 and 2023, which cover tax years 2021 and 2022. The IRS has published no later year.
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Moved to Arizona
121,675 returns
202,429 individuals, from the other 49 states and the District of Columbia. |
Moved from Arizona
104,359 returns
175,302 individuals, to the other 49 states and the District of Columbia. |
Net to Arizona
17,316 returns
27,127 individuals. Sixth among the 50 states and the District of Columbia by net returns. |
Moved Within Arizona
49,536 returns
87,245 individuals moved from one Arizona county to another. |
Flows between Arizona and the eight states that sent it 4,000 or more returns, in order of returns moving to Arizona:
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California
28,402 to Arizona
16,283 from Arizona to California. Net to Arizona: 12,119 returns. |
Texas
8,463 to Arizona
9,966 from Arizona to Texas. Net to Texas: 1,503 returns. |
Washington
8,011 to Arizona
5,803 from Arizona to Washington. Net to Arizona: 2,208 returns. |
Colorado
6,012 to Arizona
5,683 from Arizona to Colorado. Net to Arizona: 329 returns. |
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Illinois
5,528 to Arizona
3,606 from Arizona to Illinois. Net to Arizona: 1,922 returns. |
Florida
4,682 to Arizona
5,096 from Arizona to Florida. Net to Florida: 414 returns. |
Nevada
4,057 to Arizona
3,387 from Arizona to Nevada. Net to Arizona: 670 returns. |
Oregon
4,007 to Arizona
3,130 from Arizona to Oregon. Net to Arizona: 877 returns. |
Source: IRS Statistics of Income, U.S. Population Migration Data, 2022 to 2023, state-to-state inflow and outflow files: Forms 1040 filed in calendar years 2022 and 2023, covering tax years 2021 and 2022. A return approximates a household, and the individual count approximates people, per the IRS. The rank is by net returns among the 50 states and the District of Columbia, worked from the same files. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
Section Two: County Flows
Maricopa County,
County by County.
Maricopa County includes Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Phoenix. In the same IRS files, its net gain from other states was 9,353 returns and 13,793 individuals. Its net loss to the rest of Arizona was 3,746 returns and 9,183 individuals.
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From Other States
73,888 returns
120,316 individuals. |
To Other States
64,535 returns
106,523 individuals. |
From the Rest of Arizona
17,227 returns
28,906 individuals. |
To the Rest of Arizona
20,973 returns
38,089 individuals. |
Flows between Maricopa County and the six counties outside Arizona that sent it 1,500 or more returns, in order of returns moving to Maricopa County:
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Los Angeles County, CA
3,562 to Maricopa County
2,181 from Maricopa County to Los Angeles County. Net to Maricopa County: 1,381 returns. |
San Diego County, CA
2,410 to Maricopa County
1,706 from Maricopa County to San Diego County. Net to Maricopa County: 704 returns. |
Orange County, CA
1,858 to Maricopa County
944 from Maricopa County to Orange County. Net to Maricopa County: 914 returns. |
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Cook County, IL
1,698 to Maricopa County
1,160 from Maricopa County to Cook County. Net to Maricopa County: 538 returns. |
Riverside County, CA
1,550 to Maricopa County
810 from Maricopa County to Riverside County. Net to Maricopa County: 740 returns. |
King County, WA
1,502 to Maricopa County
1,322 from Maricopa County to King County. Net to Maricopa County: 180 returns. |
Within Arizona, 10,805 returns moved from Maricopa County to Pinal County, and 6,549 moved from Pinal County to Maricopa County.
Source: IRS Statistics of Income, U.S. Population Migration Data, 2022 to 2023, county-to-county inflow and outflow files, for the same filing and tax years. The IRS withholds any county-to-county flow under 20 returns. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
Section Three: Population Estimates
Arizona and Its Counties,
Vintage 2025.
The Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 estimates measure migration from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025. For a county, net domestic migration counts moves to and from every other county in the United States, other Arizona counties included. Arizona’s net domestic migration of 31,107 was fifth among the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
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Arizona
31,107 net domestic
Population 7,623,818 on July 1, 2025, up 67,394 in the year. Net international migration 28,219. Natural increase 7,649. |
Maricopa County
941 net domestic
Population 4,689,558 on July 1, 2025, up 35,411 in the year. Net international migration 22,132. Natural increase 11,904. |
Pinal County
21,315 net domestic
Population 539,380 on July 1, 2025, up 23,654 in the year. Net international migration 1,158. Natural increase 1,265. |
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Arizona
Net domestic migration, year ending June 30
2021: 84,233 2022: 68,315 2023: 34,804 2024: 34,303 2025: 31,107 |
Maricopa County
Net domestic migration, year ending June 30
2021: 43,570 2022: 32,346 2023: 2,183 2024: net loss of 2,049 2025: 941 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Population Estimates, county population totals and components of change (co-est2025-alldata), released March 26, 2026. The components do not add exactly to the population change; the Census Bureau carries the difference as a residual. The rank is among the 50 states and the District of Columbia, worked from the same file. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
Section Four: Places and Homes
Scottsdale, Paradise Valley,
and Phoenix.
The Census Bureau estimates the population of cities and towns but publishes no migration figures for them. It estimates housing units for states and counties.
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Scottsdale
243,006
Estimated population on July 1, 2025, down 1,680 from 244,686 a year earlier. |
Paradise Valley
12,251
Estimated population on July 1, 2025, down 250 from 12,501 a year earlier. |
Phoenix
1,665,481
Estimated population on July 1, 2025, up 3,157 from 1,662,324 a year earlier. |
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Maricopa County
2,000,280 housing units
On July 1, 2025, up 41,636 from a year earlier. |
Pinal County
209,076 housing units
On July 1, 2025, up 9,687 from a year earlier. |
Arizona
3,373,746 housing units
On July 1, 2025, up 66,141 from a year earlier. |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Population Estimates for incorporated places (sub-est2025) and housing units for Arizona counties (CO-EST2025-HU-04), released May 14, 2026. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
Section Five: State Income Tax
State Income Tax Rates,
2026.
These are the top individual income tax rates for a single filer as of January 1, 2026, for Arizona and the eight states in Section One. The migration data on this page do not record the reasons for a move.
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Arizona
2.5 percent
Flat rate on all taxable income. |
California
13.3 percent
Top rate, on taxable income over $1,000,000. |
Texas
None
No individual income tax. |
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Washington
7 to 9 percent
On capital gains income only, with 9 percent above $1,000,000. |
Colorado
4.4 percent
Flat rate. |
Illinois
4.95 percent
Flat rate. |
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Florida
None
No individual income tax. |
Nevada
None
No individual income tax. |
Oregon
9.9 percent
Top rate, on taxable income over $125,000. |
Source: Tax Foundation, State Individual Income Tax Rates and Brackets, as of January 1, 2026, published February 17, 2026. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
Section Six: Anne Sostman’s Reading of the Data
What the Data Shows,
and What It Does Not.
This section is Anne Sostman’s reading of the figures above. It restates what they show, draws on no other data, and makes no forecast.
Both sources show a net gain for Arizona.
The IRS files show 17,316 more returns moving to Arizona from other states than leaving it, and the Census Bureau estimates a net domestic gain of 31,107 people for July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025. The two sources count different units over different years, so the figures are read side by side, not added together or compared directly.
Maricopa County’s net domestic figure is small.
The Census Bureau puts Maricopa County’s net domestic migration at 2,183 for the year ending June 30, 2023, a net loss of 2,049 for the year ending June 30, 2024, and 941 for the year ending June 30, 2025. Over that year the county grew by 35,411 people, mostly through net international migration of 22,132 and natural increase of 11,904.
Moves within Arizona show up in the county figures.
The Census county figure counts moves to and from the rest of Arizona. In the IRS files, Maricopa County gained 9,353 returns from other states and lost 3,746 to the rest of Arizona, with 10,805 returns moving to Pinal County and 6,549 coming the other way. The Census Bureau puts Pinal County’s net domestic migration at 21,315 for the year ending June 30, 2025.
Scottsdale and Paradise Valley estimates are lower than a year earlier.
The Census Bureau estimates Scottsdale’s population fell by 1,680 and Paradise Valley’s by 250 between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025, and Phoenix’s rose by 3,157. Because the Census Bureau publishes no migration figures for cities, the data do not show how much of each change came from moves.
What the data cannot show.
Neither source records why a household moved, what it bought, or where in a county it settled, and neither covers April to June 2026. ARMLS closings for the quarter are not in this issue.
Section Seven: Methodology
How Each Number
Was Sourced.
Every figure on this page comes from a public source named beside it, with its period, and was retrieved on October 20, 2026. Ranks and net figures were worked from the same source files.
IRS migration data: Statistics of Income, U.S. Population Migration Data, 2022 to 2023. Forms 1040 filed and processed in calendar years 2022 and 2023, covering tax years 2021 and 2022, matched by taxpayer identification number. A move is a change of state or county between the two returns. The address on a return is a mailing address and may differ from the residence, and the data cover only returns filed with the IRS. The IRS withholds state flows under 10 returns and county flows under 20. Starting with these files, the IRS matches returns a new way that adds about 5 percent more returns, so they are not directly comparable with earlier years.
Census Bureau estimates: Vintage 2025 Population Estimates. County totals and components of change were released March 26, 2026, and city and town totals and county housing units on May 14, 2026. Migration runs July 1 to June 30, and population and housing counts are as of July 1. Each vintage revises earlier years, so every year shown here comes from Vintage 2025.
Tax Foundation: State Individual Income Tax Rates and Brackets, as of January 1, 2026, published February 17, 2026.
Not in this issue: ARMLS closings for April 1 to June 30, 2026, since none of the ARMLS exports this site holds covers that quarter on its own, and Cromford Report figures, which are published to subscribers.
Anne Sostman’s reading: Section Six restates the figures in this issue and adds no other data, observation, or forecast.
Common Questions
Questions About This Issue.
For Buyers and Sellers
The Index Reports the Data.
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Reviewed by Anne Sostman · The Brokery · Arizona License SA718853000 · September 2026